Saturday, January 22, 2005

Ambassador Pataki? (Or, The Pataki-Giuliani Zero Sum Game)

The onset of the second Bush Administration (of the second Bush Administration) means all the cards in the deck of the Republican Party are being reshuffled accordingly. The Inaugural Balls and gala's and parties wind down as resignations of Cabinet members are accepted, new nominees are shuttled en route to Senate confirmation, and -- most of all -- intrigue is on high inside the walnut-paneled back rooms of the Capitol, where all the deals are made. Consequently, that fascinating. high stakes Zero sum game that is being played so expertly by Governor George Pataki (a "Very Serious Player, Indeed" who was, incidentally/ironically, invited to the Trump wedding) and "Quite A Smooth Operator," former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, one of the luckiest men in politics (Machiavelli would tip his hat), gets kicked up a notch.

Republican political insider and soi disant, "Prince of Darkness," Robert Novak today put forth this interesting proposition:

"Sources close to New York Gov. George Pataki say he has been asked whether he would consider filling the vacancy of U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

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(Image via NYTimes)

"No firm offer has been made to Pataki, who is without diplomatic or international experience. The U.N. assignment would immediately rule out Pataki for a possible fourth term as governor next year. However, experience in international affairs might boost his 2008 presidential ambitions."

This development shouldn't be too surprising, as Pataki's reluctance to begin campaigning openly for his own seat at this late date has led speculation that the Governor didn't quite have the fire in the belly for a fourth term. His mildly recieved State budget, which undercut his gains among the state health care workers, did nothing to add to his fading-like-an-oil-painting lustre. Perhaps the reelection of his Yale bud to a second term opened new career options? Besides, what has he left to prove in Albany? And a formidable challenge from rising political superstar and fundraising Energizer Bunny Elliot Spitzer might be a loser from the get-go. Perhaps 'tis time to go to Washington via Turtle Bay?

The Old Gray Lady said of the Inaugural Pataki v. Giuliani parlor game:

"The inaugural, a magnet for the nation's most influential Republicans and their donors, has become a kind of subway series between Mr. Pataki and former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, or at least between their camps, as both look to 2008 as possible presidential contenders.

"The Pataki camp has for many years felt frustrated and stymied by what many viewed as Mr. Giuliani's good luck, and so in (Homeland Security designate Michael Chertoff), some saw a small victory. The scoring went like this: Mr. Giuliani's friend and colleague, the former police commissioner, Bernard B. Kerik, had to withdraw his nomination to be homeland security secretary after admitting that he had hired an undocumented immigrant as a nanny. The episode was an embarrassment for the Bush administration, and perhaps an even greater embarrassment for Mr. Giuliani himself."

And where precisely was Kerik? Lying low, so very low, at a Giuliani's small Inaugural function at The Washington Hotel (no reporters allowed). And, to top thing off, just yesterday, Kerik's former chauffer, "One Word Eddie" (Averted Gaze) -- just as Kerik was once Giuliani's chauffer -- was busted for disorderly conduct after flashing a Kerik ID to plainclothed cops, evidently trying to get out of a jam involving his brother, Scott Aswad, who jumped a cop, and another man, and Correction Officer Kenneth Perez, who allegedly groped a woman at a club. Charmed, we're sure!

Contrast Giuliani's small no reporters event to that of Pataki, whose star is clearly on the rise. As The Old Gray Lady so shrewdly notes:

"Mr. Pataki invited hundreds of people to the ESPN Zone, a three-story themed playland of a restaurant along the parade route.

"While Mr. Giuliani sent out a select number of invitations to his private event, Mr. Pataki sent hundreds of laminated 'Pataki Passes' to people across New York and the nation, including all 350 members of the Iowa delegation. The governor's party was an extravaganza with three fountains oozing chocolate fondue, a pasta bar, an omelet bar - and several open bars for alcohol. There were more than 150 television screens (in the bathrooms, too), bowling and video games, and the food displays were decorated with ice sculptures that said 'Pataki Pass,' too.

"It may seem overblown, but it also seemed effective: a lot of people showed up. Sure, there were the Pataki stalwarts, like Charles A. Gargano and Mr. D'Amato, but also present was William D. Harris, the chief executive of last year's Republican National Convention, who has close ties to the Bush White House.

"But perhaps more important was the presence of Diane Crookham-Johnson. She is the state finance chairwoman for the Iowa Republican Party. And as anyone with presidential aspiration knows, Iowa holds the nation's first presidential caucus."

Ambassador Pataki as prelude to Vice President Pataki under President Bill Frist? Is the moderate Pataki "Bush-tested, Rove-approved"? Novak concludes:

"President Bush is under pressure to fill the U.N. vacancy, created Thursday when the resignation of John Danforth (after serving only six months) became effective. During Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearings, Secretary of State-designate Condoleezza Rice was pushed to replace Danforth immediately."

We liked John Danforth, and Pataki is. quite frankly, no John Danforth, but he plays a particularly devastating hardball, that's for sure; George Pataki has never lost an election, and the story of his grandparents emigrating from Communist Hungary is tailor made for a Senate Confirmation hearing, as well as his battles at getting reform in State Assembly of 1990 (shades of UN burocracy?). But if he wants this nomination, Pataki has serious fundraising issues (and sleazy Ground Zero payback, which the Ground Zero Widows may have thoughts about ...), baggage that comes from 3 terms of incumbency feeding at the trough of fat corporate funding, as Newsday notes:

"A Virginia-based political action committee controlled by Gov. George Pataki raised more than $1 million last year, a chunk of it used to pay for the New York Republican's national travels as he eyes a possible run for president in 2008.

"Virginia election records reviewed Friday show much of the money is in the form of huge corporate donations that would be illegal in New York because they exceed the state's $5,000 limit. There is also money in the Virginia-based PAC from corporations and individuals with business interests in New York or who do business with state government."

And then there's the patronage time bombs waiting to blow. Stay tuned ... Outcome hazy ...

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